samedi 8 mai 2010

The Need for Confidence and Practical Policies

A floating exchange rate regime wouldn't allow  Greece the kind of eononomic autarchy that Britain enjoyed in the nineteenth century, the United States in the twentieth century, and possibly China currently.  There will, therefore, always remain the need to convince foreign lenders if persistent import-export deficits cannot be eliminated, i.e. constant constraint on economic policies.

Practical policies inevitably involve the inconveniences and 'imperfections' experienced in an environment subject to egregious human behaviour, including political, social, and frictional effects.  In the appropriate situation, short-term deficit financing, can have its place; but in practice Keynesian theory has limitations both in the longer run, and most particularly for economies that cannot avoid the implications  of financing persistent export-import deficits.  The PIIGS,
France, and the UK illustrate another constraint, the need to retain the confidence of creditors, both domestic and international. It is evident that the level and persistence of their deficits are begining to emphasise importance of the long term viability their fical and monetary policies.

Serious economic advice and policy must take into account the world as it is, not the world as we might like it to be.

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